Statistical handbook of Japan.

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See Figure 2.3 ~ “Changes in the Population Pyramid”

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You know: in the western world (and, in time, also the rest of the world), the ageing population dilemma is among the demographic factors that really has “come to annoy us” …

What is going to happen to society, as the birth rates start to go down (“good news”), at the same time as the medical science makes it possible (even likely) for people to become more than 100 years old, on average (“good news”)?

The population pyramids are about to become quite skewed. Who is going to do all the extra amount of nursing this rapidly growing amount of senior citizens?

I think we’re going to discover that “good news” plus “good news” equals “not-so-good news” …!?

Yes, I know of Michael Palin. As for diplomacy, well, it will take very clever diplomacy. I could only wildly speculate beyond that. Basic education might have some impact too, but that God card could be an obstacle, yes. But there are areas (Mexico is an example), where fertility rates have come down from around 7 to the 3-4 range, seemingly in part as a result of various programs. Karen Gaia Pitts posted a comment under the “Population Solutions” post here describing how a program aimed at women’s reproductive health (see comment for details) had helped lower the fertility rate in Bangladesh from ~ 7 to under 3.

So “diplomacy” and education, yes, but also just improving opportunities for women is another kind of thing that will have an impact. Educated, working women tend to have fewer children.

I realize that you’re an American. In case you didn’t know: Michael Palin in a member of the famous British comedy ensemble known as Monty Python.

The movie in question here is: “The Meaning of Life”

I mean: if diplomacy was a deck of cards game, a lot of people would quickly throw either one of a multitude of “God-cards” at anyone who started to question the tradition of giving birth to a minimum of five children per woman; which is the customary practice all over Africa, in India, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Latin America.

Did you ever hear Michael Palin singing: “Every sperm is sacred in this neighbourhood.” ..? – -

Right now the calculator is opening for me. Maybe it was just down temporarily when you tried it. Another way to try to get to it is through this link:

http://faculty.uml.edu/klevasseur/webmathematica/

In the left collumn, under “Modeling,” click “exponential growth model.”

I agree with everything you say. I’ll just comment on a couple of items:

You’re right that increasing life spans play a role in population growth as well. Of course that’s not something anyone wants to impede. But gives one pause to imagine what the outcome might be of some major breakthrough in life extension. Could be a lurking issue of real significance, I suppose.

I agree that teaching the math of population growth to younger children could potentially be a very valuable intervention. But, as you say, it’s not going to happen in some schools and some areas. Perhaps some of those who recognize the problem of population growth need to engage in some sort of diplomacy with those who don’t. (something like what Edward O. Wilson has done with his book, The Creation: An Appeal to Save Life on Earth.)

Unfortunately, your link to the little calculator failed to open. What a shame. I’d love to see how it works.

Anyway: the little calculator would certainly not amaze me too much, as I have been cursed with a clear understanding of the terms “exponential growth” and “population explosion” ever since I was 12 years old, when I figured out the maths of it on my own.

Curiosity killed the cat. – -

Now, I’m seeing that you are trying to come up with ideas as to how to bringing the population explosion to an end. And yes: I know, very well, that it is not going to be easy. This is not just a question of how many children every woman gives birth to, but also a question of how old we are becoming, on average, before we finally call it a day, and die from natural causes.

I don’t know the correct English term for this, but in Norwegian we are talking about “the wave of elders”. -

In terms of “planning for the future”, I have always believed that the maths of population growth should be taught to children. I believe that if the problem itself has its place in the minds of children and youth even before they are making their sexual debut, much of it will be solved.

But who’s going to do the teaching? You know: this won’t be done, ever; not in catholic schools nor in muslim schools.

Another problem is CULTURE. – I am a social anthropologist myself. There are plenty of regions around the world, where the extended family system comes almost as a law of nature: “If it wasn’t for the seven, nine, eleven children you got, who’d take care of you when your working days are through?”

The problem is: I would not be amazed if the world’s population pushed past the 10 billion mark very soon; and much, much sooner than US and UN-employed demographers would like to have us think. – And now: in this world of over-industrialization … like you: I wonder … what will be the outcome ..?

Thanks for the link. That’s an interesting site with a great deal of discussion going on. I was happy to see someone linked to GIM.

The math of population growth can really be eye opening. Here’s a link to a little calculator which allows you to plug in the numbers, assuming a fixed growth rate, showing a graph of the resulting population:

http://www.hostsrv.com/webmaa/app1/MSP/webm1010/exp_growth

An interesting tidbit is that apparently even a declining growth rate (as we’ve seen in recent years) can, within certain limits, still be “exponential” in nature:

http://zebu.uoregon.edu/2003/es202/lec06.html

I’ve researched it well beyond that link. The math goes beyond my own training, but several experts seem to agree on it. At any rate, the terminology isn’t as important as the fact that world population is still growing at a strong pace with no truly predictable end in site.

http://www.theenvironmentsite.org/Forum/viewtopic.php?t=4390

I have to say you make some very good points — for me, but…

Actually, you touch on urban growth, which is an area I hope to examine in some future posts. Population growth, economic growth, urban growth, consumption growth… they’re all closely related, and there are people with financial stakes in making sure they all continue ad infinitum, or, well, at lease until we’ve committed ecoside.

John

I like my place in the country. I deserve it.

D.A.

I found this article:

http://dieoff.org/page35.htm

…which provides a pretty thorough rundown of various countries’ experiences in trying to lower fertility rates. Though it’s vintage 1990, it does touch on a lot of different ideas, including monetary incentives and disincentives.

This page:

http://overpopulation.org/pop-sustainability.html

…, like the site it’s a part of, contains a huge volume of information on the subject pulled from all sorts of news articles and sources. Worth a look.

It’s surprising to me that some lists (such as Sachs’s) of things we can do don’t include the monetary angle. Not sure what’s going on there. It would be interesting to see an update of the info in the 1990 article.

John

Yes, I absolutely agree with everything you say about economic incentives. And that’s a great idea… applying the “emissions trading” model to this.

John

After reading your post I added a link on my site to “Sustainable Population Australia”.

I guess I would add economic measures to your suggestions for humane means of influencing growth. This could be taxation but could conversely be incentive payments for people who have less kids. In Australia we have something called the “baby bonus” which is a grant of several thousand dollars for people when they have children. It was initiated by the federal government primarily to boost fertility rates.

One of the problems at present is that our concept of success is predicated on a growing economy and one crude way to achieve that is to grow the number of consumers. This must change.

How about an “emmissions trading scheme” for fertility. People who have less than two children could sell their right to children to those who want more than two. Hey, I’ll claim the copyright on that idea if no-one else has !